空间电力负荷预测方法综述与展望_肖白.pdfVIP

第 33 卷 第 25 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.33 No.25 Sep.5, 2013 78 2013 年 9 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ?2013 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 文章编号：0258-8013 (2013) 25-0078-15 中图分类号：TM 71 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：470?40 空间电力负荷预测方法综述与展望 肖白，周潮，穆钢 (东北电力大学电气工程学院，吉林省 吉林市 132012) Review and Prospect of the Spatial Load Forecasting Methods XIAO Bai, ZHOU Chao, MU Gang (School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Dianli University, Jilin 132012, Jilin Province, China) ABSTRACT: Spatial load forecasting is the precondition and SLF 是电力系统规划的基础性工作之一，根据 foundation of power system planning, especially with the lean SLF 的结果来确定供电设备应当配置的容量及其最 management requirements of the electric power system 佳位置，可提高电力系统建设的经济性、高效性、 proposed, spatial load forecasting problem has become an 可靠性[1-3]。传统负荷预测方法只预测未来负荷的大 important research subject. In order to fully utilize the existing 小，并不给出其较为精细的位置分布。随着对电力 research results within the field, conduct more in-depth 系统的管理由粗放型向精益化的转变，传统负荷预 exploration and apply them effectively, the history of the development of spatial load forecasting technology was 测已不能满足电力系统规划的要求，所以 SLF 就成 reviewed. The existing various spatial load forecasting methods 为热点研究课题。 and principles were summarized systematically. The problems 虽然国内外学者在这方面做了大量的研究工 which should be solved for SLF were proposed. The directions 作，提出了很多种 SLF 方法[1-66]，但是每种 SLF 方 for future research of SLF were prospected. 法都有各自的适用条件和不足之处，在什么情况下 KEY WORDS: spatial load forecasti