基于静态交通发生率的停车需求预测及应用.pdfVIP

基于静态交通发生率的停车需求预测及应用 李智彦 （交通运输部公路科学研究院，北京 100088） 摘 要：针对大城市中心城区停车难问题，在对哈尔滨市曼哈顿地区的停车设施面积、停车场用地及归属、停放类 型、停放时长、停放频率等进行了调查分析的基础上，利用静态交通发生率模型研究预测了该区停车泊车位的需求状 况，并提出了相应的停车需求策略。结果表明，该地区的停车泊位数严重不足，商业性停车泊位数缺口最大。针对预 测结果对该地区的停车规划与管理提出了几点建议：加强路外停车和路边停车的合理规划；制定合理的停车收费标准 等。预测结果及建议为类似地区的停车规划提供参考。 关键词：交通工程；停车场；静态交通发生率；停车需求 中图分类号：U491.7 文献标识码：A DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-6478.2012.04.013 Parking Demand Forecasting and Application Based on Static Traffic Occurrence Rate LI Zhiyan (Research Institute of Highway, MOT, Beijing 100088, China) Abstract: Metropolitan central city parking is difficult issues.Based on the investigation and analysis on the area of parking facilities, the attribution conditions of parking, parked type, parked time, parked frequency, etc. in Manhattan area, Harbin, using the static traffic occurrence rate model , the author predicted the parking needs of the area and put forward the corresponding parking demand strategy.The results show that it was seriously short of the number of parking and commercial parking was even worse in that area. Based on the results of the prediction, recommendations on parking planning and management were given out: strengthen rational planning of the street outside parking and street parking develop reasonable parking standards, etc.. The results of forecasting and recommendations provide a reference for parking planning of similar areas. Key words: traffic engineering; parking lot; static traffic occurrence rate; parking demand 0 前言 车使用每年以约 15% 的速度增长，而城市交通基础 　　我国正处在交通事业迅速发展时期，随着民族 设施增长率为 2%～3%。城市不仅出现了道路上动态 汽车工业的改革与发展及居民购买能力的提高，机动