经典报告-高盛对盛大并购新浪行为评述原版.pdfVIP

Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA) SINA Corporation (SINA) Shanda acquires 19.5% of Sina; we view a swap ratio of 0.9:1.0 as fair Note Summary: Shanda announced in a SEC filing after the market close on Feb 18 that it has acquired February 20, 2005 19.5% of Sinas shares using cash on hand, the vast majority immediately following Sinas 4Q2004 results release on Feb 8. The transaction itself is earnings accretive - we raise our Shanda 2005 fully Shanda Interactive Entertainment diluted (FD) EPS estimate by 8% to US$1.42 and 2006 by 7% to US$1.60 to reflect Shanda equity In-Line/Neutral accounting its stake and thus booking 19.5% of Sinas earnings ($13 mn boost), offsetting foregone Stock data interest income ($4 mn reduction). A full acquisition would be earnings dilutive given Shanda is at 23X Price US$30.01 our 2005 FD EPS while Sina is at 25X; we view Sinas earnings quality (60% wireless) as lower, though Price target US$33.00 Shanda might boost Sinas earnings through leveraging its prepaid card network. We assume Shanda 52-week range US$45.40 - 10.58 will wait and watch Sinas share price next week, and consider a share swap acquisition at a ratio of not Dividend yield 1.1% more than 1:1.We have an IL rating on Shanda and a 12 month target price of $33 based on 21X our Capitalization 2006 forecast EPS; risks include loss of massive multiplayer game players to rival game World of Market cap US$2,092 mn Warcraft. We have an IL rating on Sina and a 12 month target price of $26 based on 20X our 2006 fully Enterprise value