测度中国与G-7的双边贸易成本——一个改进引力模型方法的应用.pdfVIP

测皮中国与G-7 的双边贸易成本 • 53 • 叫皮中阁岛 G-7 的双i在贸易成本 一一一个改进引力模型方法的应用 钱学锋口梁琦2 (1.中南财级政法大学工商管理学院; 2. 南京大学经济学院) 【摘要】传统引力模型方法在测皮贸易成本时，由于缺乏微观理论基础，往往 事前假定贸易成本的构成并且忽略多边阻力的影响而广受批伴。基于一个融入双边 冰山型贸易成本的多边一般均衡贸易模型，本文采用的改进引力模型能够弥补上述 缺陷。运用该模型我们综合测度了 1980，...， 2006 年中国与 G-7 各国关税等价的双边 贸易成本。结果表明，中国与这些国家关税等价的贸易成本都已经低于 50% ，与 1980 年相比，到 2006 年平均下降幅度高达 30% ，并且在入世以后黑现加速下降的 趋势。这克分说明:ìt 30 年来，中国的对外开放程度不断提升， j正加速融入会2点级 济一体化之中。 关键诩贸易成本引力模型多边阻力 中圈分提号 F12 文献标识明 A 肌lJeasuring the Bilateral Trade Costs between China and G-7: A Revised Gravity Model Abstract: The traditional gravity model is broadly criticized when it is used to measure trade costs , because it is short of a micro-founded theory and by ex ante assuming trade costs consisted of certain components and without accounting for the impact of multilateral resistance. Based on a revised gravity model which is de- veloped through a multi-country general equilibrium model of trade that incorpo- rates bilateral iceberg trade costs , this paper can overcome above drawbacks. Ac- cording to the model , we comprehensively measure the tariff equivalent bilateral trade costs between China and G-7 during 1980-2006. The results show that , the tariff 叫uivalent bilateral trade costs between China and G-7 is under 50 percent in 2006 and fell by 30 percent from 1980 to 2006. Especially after accession to WTQ , the trend is accelerated to decline. Key words: Trade Cost; Gravity Model; Multilateral Resistance • 54 • 《数量经济技术经济研究 2008 年第 2 期 引|曹 随着科学技术的进步，尤其是运输和通信技术的飞跃发展，人们普遍相信，人类可以边 ~脱距离的暴政 (tyranny of distance) 并预宵距离的消亡 (death of distance) (Cairn- cross 9 2001)。事实上，在过去的一个多世纪盟，以距离为基础的贸易成本确实大大减小了。 研究表明，第一次世界大战前的 40 年盟贸易戚本下降了