Chap.13TimeSeriesDescriptiveAnalyses,Models.pptVIP

? 2011 Pearson Education, Inc Statistics for Business and Economics Chapter 13 Time Series:Descriptive Analyses, Models, Forecasting Content 13.1 Descriptive Analysis: Index Numbers 13.2 Descriptive Analysis: Exponential Smoothing 13.3 Time Series Components 13.4 Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing 13.5 Forecasting Trends: Holt’s Method 13.6 Measuring Forecast Accuracy: MAD and RMSE Content 13.7 Forecasting Trends: Simple Linear Regression 13.8 Seasonal Regression Models 13.9 Autocorrelation and the Durbin-Watson Test Learning Objectives Focus on methods for analyzing data generated by a process over time (i.e., time series data). Present descriptive methods for characterizing time series data. Present inferential methods for forecasting future values of time series data. Time Series Data generated by processes over time Describe and predict output of processes Descriptive analysis Understanding patterns Inferential analysis Forecast future values 13.1 Descriptive Analysis:Index Numbers Index Number Measures change over time relative to a base period Price Index measures changes in price e.g. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Quantity Index measures changes in quantity e.g. Number of cell phones produced annually Steps for Calculatinga Simple Index Number 1. Obtain the prices or quantities for the commodity over the time period of interest. 2. Select a base period. 3. Calculate the index number for each period according to the formula Steps for Calculatinga Simple Index Number Symbolically, Simple Index Number Example The table shows the price per gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S for the years 1990 – 2006. Use 1990 as the base year (prior to the Gulf War). Calculate the simple index number for 1990, 1998, and 2006. Simple Index Number Solution 1990 Index Number (base period) Simple Index Number Solution 2006 Index Number Simple Index Numbers 1990–2006 Simple Index Numbers 1990–2006 Composite Index Number Made up of two or more commodities A simple index u