SentencingreforminCaliforniaandPublicSafety.pptVIP

Comparison of Arrest Rates Pre-Post Prop 47 By Race/Ethnicity Twelve months prior Twelve months following Change Black Arrests per 100,000 884 840 -44 Black Booked Arrests per 100,000 672 610 -62 White Arrests per 100,000 278 266 -12 White Booked Arrests per 100,000 202 179 -23 Hispanic Arrests per 100,000 355 337 -18 Hispanic Booked Arrests per 100,000 253 233 -20 Avenues through which decarceration in California may impact crime rates (and factors that may mitigate these effects) Incapacitation General deterrence Rehabilitation/specific deterrence, hardening/criminogenic influence Diminishing crime-fighting returns to scale Preferred estimates of the effect of a realignment-induced one-unit change in prison incarceration rates on part I crime rates And proposition 47? What explains small effects on crime? Change in offending propensity Diminishing returns to incarceration Criminogenic heterogeneity among those who criminally offend Expansion of the use of prison along the extensive margin Net less serious offenders for less serious offenses Expansion of the use of prison along the intensive margin More likely to incarcerate offenders beyond the age of desistance Evidence from other setting of diminishing marginal returns Italy’s collective clemency Dutch sentencing enhancement Heterogeneity in prison-crime effect estimates at different points in time for the U.S. The 2006 Italian Collective Clemency Bill Passed on July 1, 2006 Reduced sentences of inmates convicted of certain felony offenses prior to May 2, 2006 by three years. Led to the immediate release of one-third of the prison population on August 1, 2006. Ineligible inmates include those convicted of offenses involving organized crime, sexual assault, terrorism, kidnapping, and exploiting a prostitute. No post-released supervision. Pardoned inmates who re-offend have their residual sentence tagged on to any new sentence for offenses occurring within five years. Scatter plot of monthly incarceration rates