StatisticsandArtSampling,ResponseError,MixedModels.pptVIP

Statistics and Art: Sampling, Response Error, Mixed Models, Missing Data, and Inference  Ed Stanek  Outline Example: Dose-response Models in Toxicology- Threshold vs Hormetic Models What is truth?: Predict what? Subsets- sampling Prediction Results on Predictor of Realized Subject True Value Illustration and Dilemma Extension to two-stage problems Missing data framework Conclusions 1. Example: Dose-response Models - Threshold vs Hormetic Models  Yeast data- 2189 chemicals, 13 yeast strains, 5 doses x 2 replications- Focus on doses below BMD 2. What is truth? Predict what? Non-Stochastic Model:  Index for response: Response error: Assume: Response Error Model:For each subject: 3. Subsets, Sampling Select n of N subjects (a subset, “sample”) Let all subsets be equally likely: Sample as a Sequence(part of Permutation) Represent Positions in a Permutation: Assume all Permutations Equally Likely: Population size (N) is most likely 3 We only see “n” subjects in the sample For example: Suppose n=3, and N=7 We may see … Traditional Sampling Approach With Response Error Model Sample is a set First Position in Permutation: Positions in Sample Sequences Basic Random Variables Response Error Model Mixed Model Properties of Basic Random Variables (N=3) Sample Random Variables (n=2) Prediction of Mean in a Simple Case: No Response Error (N=3, n=2) Prediction of Mean  No Response Error (N=3, n=2) Prediction of a Subject’s Mean in Position i with No Resp. Error (N=3, n=2) Prediction of a Subject’s Mean in Position i with Response Error Prediction of Realized Random Effect – Other Examples Delimma Pooled Response Error Variance should be used for K (Using theoretical Results) Empirical example illustrates smaller MSE results with K depending on realized Subject -- but no theory! What should we do?.... Is there a ‘gap’ in the framework? Basic Sample Random Variables Basic Random Variables Viviana, Ed, Silvina, in a sample Population of N=3 su