考虑多种影响因素的配电网运行风险评估 .pdfVIP

学兔兔 第51卷 第6期 电测与仪表 V0I．51 No．6 2014年 3月25日 Electrical Measurement＆ InstrumentatiOil Mar．25．2014 考虑多种影响因素的配电网运行风险评估 苏海锋，姜小静，梁志瑞 (华北电力大学 电气与电子工程学院，河北保定071003) 摘要：配电网故障引起的大停电事故的频频发生引发了人们对配电系统运行风险的研究。针对配电网发展过程 中运行风险影响因素的不断增加，提出了一种考虑多种影响因素的配电网风险评估模型。模型中配电网停电成 本的计算采用了一种新方法，该方法反映了停电频率、停电持续时间及停电电量对停电成本的综合影响，能更 科学地计算出停电成本，使配电网风险评估结果更接近实际情况。最后采用蒙特卡罗法对RBTS Bus一3进行了风 险评估，并与解析法的评估结果进行了对比，验证了评估方法的有效性。 关键词：配电网；风险评估；停电成本；蒙特卡罗法 中图分类号：TM93 文献标识码：B 文章编号：1001—1390(2014)06—0034—05 Distribution Network Operation Risk Assessment Considering Various Influencing Factors SU Hai-feng，JIANG Xiao-jing，LIANG Zhi-rui (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering，North China Electric Power University，Baoding 071003， Hebei，China) Abstract：The frequent blackout caused by distribution network faults has sparked research on distribution system operation risksl For the continuous increase of operation risk influencing factors in the process of distribution network development，a risk assessment model considering various influencing factors of distribution network is proposed．In the model，a new method is adopted to calculate outage cost of distribution network，which reflects the comprehensive effect of interruption frequency，interruption duration and quantity of outage on the fault cost．The method can calculate outage cost better，and the distribution network risk assessment result is closer to actual situation．Finally，the Monte Carlo method is adopted to conduct the ri