A Heuristic Solution of the Identifiability Problem of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Cancer Occurrence Lung Cancer Example 英文参考文献.docVIP

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A Heuristic Solution of the Identifiability Problem of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Cancer Occurrence Lung Cancer Example 英文参考文献.doc

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A Heuristic Solution of the Identifiability Problem of the Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Cancer Occurrence Lung Cancer Example 英文参考文献

AHeuristicSolutionoftheIdentifiabilityProblemofthe Age-Period-CohortAnalysisofCancerOccurrence:Lung CancerExample TengizMdzinarishvili,SimonSherman* EppleyInstitute,UniversityofNebraskaMedicalCenter,Omaha,Nebraska,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background:TheAge–Period–Cohort(APC)analysisisaimedatestimatingthefollowingeffectsondiseaseincidence:(i)the ageofthesubjectatthetimeofdiseasediagnosis;(ii)thetimeperiod,whenthediseaseoccurred;and(iii)thedateofbirth ofthesubject.Theseeffectscanhelpinevaluatingthebiologicaleventsleadingtothedisease,inestimatingtheinfluence of distinct risk factors on disease occurrence, and in the development of new strategies for disease prevention and treatment. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:WedevelopedanovelapproachforestimatingtheAPCeffectsondiseaseincidencerates in the frame of the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort (LLAPC) model. Since the APC effects are linearly interdependent and cannotbeuniquelyestimated,solvingthisidentifiabilityproblemrequiressettingfourredundantparameterswithinasetof unknown parameters. By setting three parameters (one of the time-period and the birth-cohort effects and the correspondingageeffect)tozero,wereducedthisproblemtotheproblemofdeterminingoneredundantparameterand, usedassuch,theeffectofthetime-periodadjacenttotheanchoredtimeperiod.Byvaryingthisidentificationparameter,a family of estimates of the APC effects can be obtained. Using a heuristic assumption that the differences between the adjacent birth-cohort effects are small, we developed a numerical method for determining the optimal value of the identificationparameter,bywhichauniquesetofallAPCeffectsisdeterminedandtheidentifiabilityproblemissolved. Conclusions/Significance: WetestedthisapproachwhileestimatingtheAPCeffectsonlungcanceroccurrenceinwhite men and women using the SEER data, collected during 1975–2004. We showed that the LLAPC models with the correspondinguniquesetsoftheAPCeffectsestimatedbytheproposedapproachfitverywellwiththeobservationaldata. Ci