A Model of Malaria Epidemiology Involving Weather, Exposure and Transmission Applied to North East India 英文参考文献.docVIP

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A Model of Malaria Epidemiology Involving Weather, Exposure and Transmission Applied to North East India 英文参考文献.doc

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A Model of Malaria Epidemiology Involving Weather, Exposure and Transmission Applied to North East India 英文参考文献

AModelofMalariaEpidemiologyInvolvingWeather, ExposureandTransmissionAppliedtoNorthEastIndia PrashantGoswami1*,UpadhayulaSuryanarayanaMurty2,SrinivasaRaoMutheneni2, AvinashKukkuthady1,SwathiTrithalaKrishnan1 1CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation [C-MMACS], Bengaluru, India, 2Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Hyderabad,India Abstract Background:Quantitativerelationsbetweenweathervariablesandmalariavectorcanenablepro-activecontrolthrough meteorologicalmonitoring.Suchrelationsarealsocriticalforreliableprojectionsinachangingclimate,especiallysincethe vectorabundancedependsonacombinationofweathervariables,eachinagivenrange.Further,suchmodelsneedtobe region-specificasvectorpopulationandexposuredependonregionalcharacteristics. Methods:Weconsiderdaysofgenesisbasedondailytemperature,rainfallandhumidityingivenranges.Wedefineasingle model parameter based on estimates of exposure and transmission to calibrate the model; the model is applied to 12 districtsofArunachalPradesh,aregionendemictomalaria.Theepidemiologicaldataistakenasbloodsamplesthattest positive. The meteorological data is adopted from NCEP daily Reanalysis on a global grid; population data is used to estimateexposureandtransmissioncoefficients. Results: The observed annual cycles (2006–2010) and the interannual variability (2002–2010) of epidemiology are well simulatedforeachofthe12districtsbythemodel.Whilenosingleweathervariableliketemperaturecanreproducethe observedepidemiology,acombinationoftemperature,rainfallandhumidityprovidesanaccuratedescriptionoftheannual cycleaswellastheinterannualvariabilityoverallthe12districts. Conclusion:Inclusionofthethreemeteorologicalvariables,alongwiththeexpressionsforexposureandtransmission,can quite accurately represent observed epidemiology over multiple locations and different years. The model is potentially useful for outbreak forecasts at short time scales through high resolution weather monitoring; however, validation