A Statistical Framework for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions 英文参考文献.docVIP

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A Statistical Framework for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions 英文参考文献.doc

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A Statistical Framework for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions 英文参考文献

AStatisticalFrameworkfortheAdaptiveManagementof EpidemiologicalInterventions DanielMerl1*,LeahR.Johnson2,RobertB.Gramacy3,MarcMangel4 1Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America, 2Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, UniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbara,SantaBarbara,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3StatisticalLaboratory,UniversityofCambridge,Cambridge,UnitedKingdom, 4Center for Biomolecular Science and Engineering and Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Epidemiologicalinterventionsaimtocontrolthespreadofinfectiousdiseasethroughvariousmechanisms, eachcarryingadifferentassociatedcost. Methodology: We describe a flexible statistical framework for generating optimal epidemiological interventions that are designed to minimize the total expected cost of an emerging epidemic while simultaneously propagating uncertainty regardingtheunderlyingdiseasemodelparametersthroughtothedecisionprocess.Thestrategiesproducedthroughthis frameworkareadaptive:vaccinationschedulesareiterativelyadjustedtoreflecttheanticipatedtrajectoryoftheepidemic giventhecurrentpopulationstateandupdatedparameterestimates. Conclusions:Usingsimulationstudiesbasedonaclassicinfluenzaoutbreak,wedemonstratetheadvantagesofadaptive interventionsovernon-adaptiveones,intermsofcostandresourceefficiency,androbustnesstomodelmisspecification. Citation: Merl D, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Mangel M (2009) A Statistical Framework for the Adaptive Management of Epidemiological Interventions. PLoS ONE4(6):e5807.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005807 Editor:YangYang,FredHutchinsonCancerResearchCenter,UnitedStatesofAmerica ReceivedDecember12,2008;AcceptedMay11,2009;PublishedJune5,2009 Copyright:?2009Merletal.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense,whichpermitsunrestricted use,distribution,andreprod