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A Tale of Four “Carp” Invasion Potential and Ecological Niche Modeling 英文参考文献
ATaleofFour‘‘Carp’’:InvasionPotentialandEcological
NicheModeling
ShannonC.DeVaney¤a*,KristinaM.McNyset¤b,JustinB.Williams¤c,A.TownsendPeterson,
EdwardO.Wiley
TheUniversityofKansas,NaturalHistoryMuseumandBiodiversityResearchCenter,Lawrence,Kansas,UnitedStatesofAmerica
Abstract
Background:Invasivespeciesareaseriousprobleminecosystems,butaredifficulttoeradicateonceestablished.Predictive
methodscanbekeyindeterminingwhichareasareofconcernregardinginvasionbysuchspeciestopreventestablishment
[1].WeassessedthegeographicpotentialoffourEurasiancyprinidfishes(commoncarp,tench,grasscarp,blackcarp)as
invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM). These ‘‘carp’’ represent four stages of invasion of the
continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a
spreadinginvaderwhosedistributionisexpanding,andanewlyintroducedpotentialinvaderthatisnotyetestablished),
andassuchillustratetheprogressivereductionofdistributionaldisequilibriumoverthehistoryofspecies’invasions.
Methodology/Principal Findings: We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North
Americausingmodelsbasedonnativerangedistributiondata.Environmentaldatalayersfornativeandintroducedranges
wereimportedfromstate,national,andinternationalclimateandenvironmentaldatabases.Modelswereevaluatedusing
independentvalidationdataonnativeandinvadedareas.Wecalculatedomissionerrorfortheindependentvalidationdata
foreachspecies:allnativerangetestswerehighlysuccessful(allomissionvalues,7%);invaded-rangepredictionswere
predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively). Model omission was high for
introducedtenchpopulations(54.7%),butthemodelcorrectlyidentifiedsomeareaswherethespecieshasbeensuccessful;
distributionalpredictionsforblackcarpshowthatlargeportionsofeasternNorthAmericaareatrisk.
Conclusions/Significance: ENMspredictedpotentialrangesofcarpspeciesaccuratelyeveninregionswherethespec
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