Applied Climate-Change Analysis The Climate Wizard Tool 英文参考文献.docVIP

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2017-05-11 发布于上海
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Applied Climate-Change Analysis The Climate Wizard Tool 英文参考文献.doc

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Applied Climate-Change Analysis The Climate Wizard Tool 英文参考文献

AppliedClimate-ChangeAnalysis:TheClimateWizard Tool EvanH.Girvetz1,2*,ChrisZganjar2,GeorgeT.Raber3,EdwinP.Maurer4,PeterKareiva5,JoshuaJ.Lawler1 1School of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America, 2Global Climate Change Program, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia, United States of America, 3Department of Geography and Geology, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, Mississippi, United States of America,4DepartmentofCivilEngineering,SantaClaraUniversity,SantaClara,California,UnitedStatesofAmerica,5WorldwideOffice,TheNatureConservancy,Seattle, Washington,UnitedStatesofAmerica Abstract Background: Althoughthemessageof ‘‘global climatechange’’is catalyzinginternational action,itis localandregional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers.Amajorbarrierpreventinginformedclimate-changeadaptationplanningisthedifficultyaccessing,analyzing,and interpretingclimate-changeinformation.Toaddressthisproblem,wedevelopedapowerful,yeteasytouse,web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateW) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovativegraphicaldepictionsforconveyinghowclimatehasandisprojectedtochangewithinspecificgeographicareas throughouttheworld. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:TodemonstratetheClimateWizard,weexploredhistorictrendsandfuturedepartures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatesttemperatureincreasesduring1951–2002occurredinnorthernhemispherecountries(especiallyduringJanuary– April),butthelatitudeofgreatesttemperaturechangevariedthroughouttheyear,sinusoidallyrangingfromapproximately 50uN during February-March to 10uN during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countriesbetween0–20uN,andincreasesmostlyoccurredoutsideofthislatitudinalregion.Similarly,aquantileensemble analysi