Multi-Step Polynomial Regression Method to Model and Forecast Malaria Incidence 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Multi-Step Polynomial Regression Method to Model and Forecast Malaria Incidence 英文参考文献.doc

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Multi-Step Polynomial Regression Method to Model and Forecast Malaria Incidence 英文参考文献

Multi-StepPolynomialRegressionMethodtoModeland ForecastMalariaIncidence ChandrajitChatterjee,RamRupSarkar* CentreforCellularandMolecularBiology(CSIR),Hyderabad,India Abstract Malariaisoneofthemostsevereproblemsfacedbytheworldeventoday.Understandingthecausativefactorssuchasage, sex,socialfactors,environmentalvariabilityetc.aswellasunderlyingtransmissiondynamicsofthediseaseisimportantfor epidemiological research on malaria and its eradication. Thus, development of suitable modeling approach and methodology,basedontheavailabledataontheincidenceofthediseaseandotherrelatedfactorsisofutmostimportance. Inthisstudy,wedevelopedasimplenon-linearregressionmethodologyinmodelingandforecastingmalariaincidencein Chennaicity,India,andpredictedfuturediseaseincidencewithhighconfidencelevel.Weconsideredthreetypesofdatato developtheregressionmethodology:alongertimeseriesdataofSlidePositivityRates(SPR)ofmalaria;asmallertimeseries data(deathsduetoPlasmodiumvivax)ofoneyear;andspatialdata(zonaldistributionofP.vivaxdeaths)forthecityalong with the climatic factors, population and previous incidence of the disease. We performed variable selection by simple correlationstudy,identificationoftheinitialrelationshipbetweenvariablesthroughnon-linearcurvefittingandusedmulti- stepmethodsforinductionofvariablesinthenon-linearregressionanalysisalongwithappliedGauss-Markovmodels,and ANOVAfortestingtheprediction,validityandconstructingtheconfidenceintervals.Theresultsexecutetheapplicabilityof ourmethodfordifferenttypesofdata,theautoregressivenatureofforecasting,andshowhighpredictionpowerforboth SPR and P. vivax deaths, where the one-lag SPR values plays an influential role and proves useful for better prediction. Differentclimaticfactorsareidentifiedasplayingcrucialroleonshapingthediseasecurve.Further,diseaseincidenceat zonallevelandtheeffectofcausativefactorsondifferentzonalclustersindicatethepatternofmalariaprevalenceinthe city.Thestudyalsodemonstratesthatwithexcellentmodelsofclimaticforecastsreadil