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Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds 英文参考文献
PotentialImpactsofClimaticChangeonEuropean
BreedingBirds
BrianHuntley1*,YvonneC.Collingham1,StephenG.Willis1,RhysE.Green2,3*
1InstituteofEcosystemScience,SchoolofBiologicalandBiomedicalSciences,DurhamUniversity,Durham,UnitedKingdom,2ConservationScience
Group, Department ofZoology,UniversityofCambridge,Cambridge, UnitedKingdom,3ConservationScienceDepartment, Royal Societyforthe
ProtectionofBirds,Sandy,UnitedKingdom
Background. Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species’ geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for
biodiversityconservationrequirequantitativeestimatesofthemagnitude,directionandratesofthesepotentialchanges.Such
estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or
continental)regions.Methodology/PrincipalFindings.Forsixclimatescenariosfor2070–99changeshavebeenestimatedfor
431 European breeding bird species using models relating species’ distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid
potentiallyshifted258–882kminadirectionbetween341u(NNW)and45u(NE),dependingupontheclimatescenarioconsidered.
Potentialfuturerangeextentaveraged72–89%ofthepresentrange,andoverlappedthepresentrangebyanaverageof31–53%
oftheextentofthepresentrange.Evenifpotentialrangechangeswererealised,theaveragenumberofspeciesbreedingper
50650kmgridsquarewoulddecreaseby6?8–23?2%.Manyspeciesendemicornear-endemictoEuropehavelittleornooverlap
betweentheirpresentandpotentialfutureranges;suchspeciesfaceanenhancedextinctionriskasaconsequenceofclimatic
change. Conclusions/Significance. Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the
potentialimpactsestimatedforEuropeanbreedingbirdsemphasisestheimportanceofclimaticchange.Thedevelopmentof
adaptationstrategiesforbiodiversityconservationinthefaceofclimaticchangeisanurgentneed;suchstrategiesmusttakeinto
accountquantitativeevidenceofpotentialclimaticchangeimpactssuchasispresentedhere.
Citation: HuntleyB,CollinghamYC,Willis
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