基于灰色聚类法的地铁运营安全趋势分析.pdfVIP

Vol. 9 No.9 第9 卷第9 期 中国安全生产科学技术 2013 年9 月 Journal of Safety Science and Technology Sep. 2013 文章编号: 1673-193X(2013) -09-∞64 -05 基于灰色聚类法的地铁运营安全趋势分析* 膏旋，钟茂华，史聪灵，石杰红 (中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 1仪沁12) 摘 要:为评估地铁运营安全水平，掌握地铁运营风险变化趋势，采用灰色聚类法对某地铁线路运 营一年以来每个月份的安全水平进行了分级评价。选取对地铁日常运营具有重要影响的设备设 施故障作为评价指标，评价方法挖掘地铁运营以来的历史数据信息，体现了设备设施故障变化的 时间特性，减少了安全评价中的主观性。将地铁运营安全水平分为五个安全等级，选取 15% 、 359岛、50% 、659岛、85% 作为各安全等级的累职百分频率特征点，建立白化权函数得到各评价指标 的灰类白化值。结合各设备设施的指标权重，得到了地铁线路运营一年来每个月份的安全等级情 况。该方法为分析地铁运营安全趋势提供了参考。 关键词:地铁运营;安全趋势;灰色聚类法:设备设施故障 中圄分类号:X951 文献标志码:A doi: 10. 1173 l/j. issn. 1673-193x. 2013. 09. 012 Analysis of the safety trend of metro operation b部ed on grey cluster method XU Xuan , ZHONG Mao-hua , SHI Cong-ling , SHI Jie-hong ( China Academy of Safety Science and Technology , Beijing 1创lO12 ， China) Abstract: In order to estimate the safety level of the metro operation and obtain the risk trend of the metro , this pa- per performed the safety grading evaluation of a subway line for one ye缸 operation by the gray cluster method. Five critical equipment failures which have significant impact on the operation are selected as the evaluation indexes. On basis of the historical data , the grey cluster evaluation contributes to decrease subjective and in which the time characters of the equipment failures are reflected. The safety level of the metro operation is divided into five grades , which corresponds to the threshold points of 159毛、359毛、50% 、65% 、 85% in the cumulative frequency curves. The whiten functions are constructed to