货币政策论文︰基于企业投资行为的货币政策微观基础研究.docVIP

货币政策论文：基于企业投资行为的货币政策微观基础研究 【中文摘要】2010年下半年以来,CPI持续走高,2011年3月份CPI同比上涨5.4%,创32个月来的新高。为了稳定币值,克服CPI偏高的问题,中央银行由适度宽松转变为稳健的货币政策。中央银行采取上调存款准备金率来实现对货币的收紧效果。而中央银行的货币政策操作是否能达到既定的目标,需要通过企业、消费者等微观主体的决策行为来实现,因此本文研究主旨是在既定货币政策框架下,企业基于利润最大化而做出的投资决策行为对货币政策最终效果的影响。本文在对已有文献进行梳理的基础上,总结了企业投资行为理论和企业投资行为决策的影响因素,并在此基础上建立了货币政策传导中的企业投资行为模型。接着,运用完全信息静态博弈方法分析了在中央银行和企业都追求自身目标最大化基础上,二者是如何实现博弈均衡的。为了考察中国企业投资行为在货币政策传导中的作用,本文采用中国2004年1季度至2010年4季度的数据,使用五变量VAR模型实证检验了企业投资行为变化对货币政策有效性的作用机制。实证结果发现企业投资对利率的敏感度不高,而且企业投资与利率是同向变动的;企业投资对货币供给量这一货币政策信号的反应敏锐;企业投资对长期通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用。通过对实证检验结果的分析,发现政策环境的不确定性和企业二元结构的存在导致的利率传导渠道不畅通是影响货币政策效果的原因。针对如何提高货币政策有效性,本文也提出了浅见:我国应该保持稳定的经济环境,制定合理的利率政策,保证银行债权人的独立性及大力推行金融发展战略,完善金融市场,保证企业投资在一个相对完备的市场进行,实现企业投资对货币政策有效性的基础作用。 【英文摘要】Since the latter half of 2010, the growth rate of CPI has been rising steadily. Until March 2001, the CPI’s rate of year-on-year growth in China was 5.4%, which reached the new record high in the past 32 months. In order to keep price stable and overcome the problem of the high growth rate of CPI, the central bank replace the pro-active fiscal policy with the prudent monetary policy. The central bank employs the method of up-regulating the rate of deposit reserve to reach the objective of tight-money. But whether the central bank achieves the set objective or not depends the behavior of micro-units such as incorporates and residents. So the purpose of this essay is to study the effect of firms’investment decision based on their utility maximization on the final effect of monetary policy under the framework of specific monetary policy.Based on sorting out the literature, this paper summarizes the history of the theory of firms’investment behavior and its influencing factors. After that, it builds a model of corporate investment behavior in the monetary policy transmission. And then, it uses the method of complete information static game to analysis how to reach the equilibrium as central bank and company are both searching for themselves’utility maximization. In o