金道词典：金与财赤.docVIP

金价与财赤 这次我们讨论金价与财政赤字的关系, 过去的数据反映二者趋势呈反方向，我们试以近年美国和英国的财政预算与金价作个比较. 在图一中，我们以美国的财政预算与金价作对比, 从2001年开始, 美财赤问题在庞大军费开支压力下每况愈下,由2001年的 GDP 2.7% 恶化至2010年 GDP -10.4%. 期间金价也从低位的 $300/安士 攀升至 2011年超过 $1,600/安士 图二以英国的财政预算与金价作比较, 从2002年开始,财赤大致维持在GDP-1.27%的水平，至2008年，金融风暴引致经济衰退，财赤问题每况愈下, 恶化至2009年 GDP -11.17%.正如前述， 期间金价也从低位的 $300/安士 攀升至 2011年超过 $1,600/安士 从以上例子可见,每当财政赤字问题一日未解决,金价仍然有强力的支持,易升难跌。 Graph 1- US budget surplus / (deficit) as % of GDP Graph 2- UK budget surplus / (deficit) as % of GDP Gold Price Vs. Budget Deficit Let’s talk about gold price and budget deficit this time. What is their relationship? How do they react over time? Anecdotal data reflects that they move in opposite direction. In the discussion below, we will try to make a comparison between budget surplus/deficit of both the U.K. and the U.S. and gold price in recent years and figure out what really happened. Diagram One compares gold price with the U.S. fiscal budget over the past twenty years. Their inverse relationship is rather obvious. In 2001, the U.S. had a fiscal surplus of 2.7% of GDP. But George W Bush’s tax cut in response to 911 and the subsequent mounting pressure of military expenditure to fund wars in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted in deterioration of the government’s balance sheet with deficit worsening to -10.4% of GDP in 2010. It is worth notice that during the same period, gold price rose from the low of $300/ounce to a high of $1600/ounce in 2011. Diagram Two compares gold price with the U.K. fiscal budget over the same period of time. In 2002, U.K.’s budget deficit stood at -1.27% of GDP. It remained rather flat upto the end of 2007 and with the deepening of economic woes following the financial debacle of 2008, fiscal deficit recorded a low of -11.17% of GDP in 2009 before easing to the recent level of -8.2% of GDP. As described above, gold price experienced a sharp rise from $300/0unce to over $1600/ounce in 2011. From the above observation, it is quite obvious that gold price will have a stro