预期管理理论简介.pptxVIP

预期管理理论简介;演讲提纲;引言：为什么讲预期管理？;经济学和自然科学的本质不同点;欧美理论界思想起源李拉亚（2016b）;政策透明;预期管理理论问世;预期管理的实质思想和特点;非常规货币政策的预期管理;前瞻性指导（Ｂａｎｋ　ｏｆ　Ｅｎｇｌａｎｄ，2013）;开放式引导ｏｐｅｎ－ｅｎｄｅｄ ｇｕｉｄａｎｃｅ特点是太活，容易误解;时间依赖型引导ｔｉｍｅ－ｃｏｎｔｉｇｅｎｔ　ｇｕｉｄａｎｃｅ特点是太死板，可信性不高;As a result, time-contingent guidance is unlikely to be that helpful now. For example, people may understand that time-contingent guidance is conditional upon the economic outlook, and that the MPC might revise its guidance in response to unanticipated developments. But such guidance, on its own provides no information about which shocks are most likely to result in a change in the timing of the first rise in Bank Rate, and by how much the date would be moved forwards or backwards. So it would not prevent people from overreacting to unanticipated developments, meaning that expectations about the path of Bank Rate could still move out of line with the path anticipated by the MPC, and lead to unwarranted moves in other interest rates and in asset prices. In addition, time-contingent guidance would not help the MPC deal with the uncertainty it currently faces about the trade-off between inflation and output growth, as it would not build in any automatic feedback between the evolution of the economy and the outlook for policy.;;状态依赖型引导ｓｔａｔｅ－ｃｏｎｔｉｇｅｎｔ　ｇｕｉｄａｎｃｅ特点：政策变化与未来具体的经济指标值相关;;;;The role of forward guidance;The transmission mechanism of forward guidance;前瞻性指导也可能不起作用;1995年至2007年的常规货币政策框架;货币政策：科学还是艺术？;常规货币政策的预期管理模式李拉亚（2011）;中国早期的预期管理;目标制;中国政府的政策规则;我们制定政策规则的重点是向公众传递信息。从《通货膨胀机理与预期》一书的第10章第4节《政策信息转递与政策规则》的节名就可以看出这一点。当时欧美经济理论界制定政策规则主要用于约束央行的行为。欧美央行政策透明要到1995年后才流行起来。 在《通货膨胀机理与预期》一书第八章第九节，笔者分析了产出缺口和通货膨胀的理论关系，即存在正的产出缺口时（实际总供给大于潜在总供给），通货膨胀率为正。存在负的产出缺口时（实际总供给小于潜在总供给），通货膨胀率为负。这是我们政策规则的理论基础。 中国新一届政府实施的合理区间论，是对中国政府传统货币政策规则的改进，可视为一种双目标型货币政策制定规则。要指出的是，使用这一货币政策规则制定政策，仍脱离不了决策者依据自己经验对产出缺口和预期通货膨胀率作出判断。 ;中国早期预期理论要点李拉亚（2011,2016a）;预期陷阱概念;前瞻性指导;;原有预期管理的不足;强硬型预期管理;前瞻性指导的博弈分析;软硬兼施策略;欧美的现实背景;中国的现实背景;主要结果;对主要结果的解释;这是一种更有力的预期管理方式;该理论的作用;该理论加深了我们对预期形成机制的认识;参考文献;Bank of England