气候变化与粮食水安全(英文).pdf

Background Note Overseas Development March 2009 Institute Climate change, water and food security By Eva Ludi he food price crisis of 2008 has led to the Climate change, however, is considered as posing re-emergence of debates about global the greatest threat to agriculture and food security food security (e.g. Wiggins, 2008) and its in the 21st century, particularly in many of the poor, Timpact on prospects for achieving the first agriculture-based countries of sub-Saharan Africa Millennium Development Goal (MDG): to end poverty (SSA) with their low capacity to effectively cope (Shah and hunger. On top of a number of shorter-term trig- et al., 2008; Nellemann et al., 2009). gers leading to volatile food prices, the longer-term African agriculture is already under stress as a result negative impacts of climate change need to be taken of population increase, industrialisation and urbanisa- very seriously. tion, competition over resource use, degradation of The United Nations Development Programme resources, and insufficient public spending for rural (UNDP) warns that the progress in human develop- infrastructure and services. The impact of climate change ment achieved over the last decade may be slowed is likely to exacerbate these stresses even further. down or even reversed by climate change, as new The outlook for the coming decades is that agricul- threats emerge