婚姻质量婚姻稳定的主要预测指标.docVIP

婚姻质量：婚姻稳定的主要预测指标 徐安琪 叶文振 Based on several related theories, such as the marital quality theory, the cost/benefits theory, the social exchange theory, the marital formation theory, and the heterogamy hypothesis, a synthetic model is developed to explain the determinants of the marital stability in China. The results from a path analysis show that marital quality is the most important and direct predictor of divorce propensity. Moreover, marital quality also acts as a mediating variable for transmitting the effects of other explained variables. However, the external anti-divorce forces have significantly weakened the negative correlation between marital quality and instability. The greater external constraints present, the lower impact of marital quality is on the future of marriage. A low quality of marriage, which tends to have a high risk of dissolution in urban areas, is more likely to survive in a relatively traditional and conservative rural community. The research also found that the length of marriage and the number of children reduced the probability of divorce because of a higher cost. The compatibility and well-developed affection between premarital couples contribute significantly to a higher quality of later marital relationship and subsequently reduce the chance of marital dissolution. But a greater attractiveness of marital alternative is likely to be associated with a higher risk of marital disruption. 七十年代末以来中国的离婚率持续上升。据国家统计局的统计，离婚数从1979年的30万对递增到2000年的121万对，粗离婚率也从1979年的0.31‰上升到2000年的0.96‰，约增加了3倍强。但国内现有的离婚研究大多只停留在宏观的概念化或定性论述上，较少定量分析和检验，尤其缺乏对微观家庭的婚姻稳定性及其影响机制的定量研究。而且仅有的个别研究也没有把婚姻质量列入它们的分析框架，以致微观研究在一定程度上过高地估计了其他并非主要的影响因素的作用。 本研究将在我们近期研究的基础上，通过对前人研究的系统融合，提出一个更为完善的分析框架，从理论层面进一步深化对婚姻稳定性的分析。 一 理论背景和假设 （一） 婚姻质量作为预测变量 虽然国内以往的离婚研究很少把婚姻质量作为一个影响变量，但婚姻质量与婚姻离散之间的因果关系却是显而易见的 (White, 1990)。Lewis和Spanier (1979) 是首次把婚姻质量和婚姻稳定性联系起来分析的学者，他们相信，婚姻质量和稳定性之间存在着一个正相关关系，即婚姻质量越高，婚姻的稳定性越好。之后的一些经验研究支持了他们的观点。Udry(1981)通过对都市已婚白人的调查分析，发现妻子的婚姻幸福感是婚姻变动的最重要的预测变量。Booth等（1986）的研究结果进一步证实