常用估值模型的陷阱.pdfVIP

DESAI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC AN SEC/FINRA REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR Contact: Ashish S. Desai, CFA ADesai@ 646.373.8145 Date Date: January 21, 2016 From: Ashish Desai; A.J. Noronha To: Investors, Family, Friends Re: The Most Valuable Thing: Value vs. Value Trap Dear Investors, family, and friends: As a longtime value investor, I have noticed that there is frequently a fine line when distinguishing between stocks that provide true underlying value and stocks that are merely cheap for various reasons. Experience is often the best teacher, and through close review of both my winning and losing investments over the years, I have identified several factors which continue to play a valuable role in our investment approach and which I believe can help other investors avoid value traps and find truly valuable investment opportunities in an uncertain market. I hope you find this helpful, please feel free to pass this along to others in your network whom may find it of interest, and as always please let me know if you have any questions or would like to discuss anything further. Value Trap #1: Price/Book We commonly use trailing P/E, forward P/E, P/B, and enterprise value/EBITDA to give us an indication of the relative value of a stock in comparison to a peer company or the greater market (e.g. SP 500). The first mistake we make is using the wrong metric. P/B is relevant when you are speaking of financial services companies, REITs, or other companies with large amounts of regularly measured assets. It is largely irrelevant when it comes to technology companies or companies with large amounts of intangible assets. Book value measurements also allow for large deviations regarding intangible and inventory write-downs, making these areas to watch for value traps. Compare Intel and Apple. Wh