基于因果模型的拱坝变形安全监控研究.pdfVIP

文意编号:0559-9342(2∞8}l2-O103斗4 总f~采镇型的拱锁变形安公监校研究 赵二峰 1气李现敏3 ，类一青 12 ，顾艳玲口 (1.河海大学水利水电工程学院江苏南京 210098:2. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全 国家工程研究中心，江苏南京 210098; 3. 河北工程大学工程学院，河北嘟嘟 056038 ) 关键询:拱坝变形;肉身Z模型;因果重要E度;因果推理;安全监赞 摘 襄:基于因果模型原理，构建丁拱坝变形的因絮集相结巢集，并从相关物理‘力学原理由发，研究了拱巧J! 变形和1 变形原因之间的剧果作用机制。据此，融合因果分析阁、居次分析法和模糊数学等技术，建立了拱坝变形影响因京 的重要应因果分析阁;1该用小波分析方讼提取了变形趋势分最，并将慕于范例的网果推理方法引人到拱坝变形因 果分析中，将其与传统的回归模型相结合，构磕了拱坝变形凶巢推理模型。研究淡明，因果分析理论的41 人能够实 现对拱坝变形机制进行更全面的分析。 Research 00 the Deformatioo Safety Mooitoring of Arch Dam based 00 Cause-effect Model Zhao Erfeng 1.2, Li Xianmin 飞 wu Yiqing 1.2, Gu Yanling 1,2 (1.College of Water Conservancy Hydropower Engineeri鸣. Hohai University , Nanjing Jiangsu 21∞98; 2. National Engineering Re附arch Center of Water Resource Efficient Utilization Engineer1ng Safe町， Hohai University , Nanjing Jiangsu 21ω98叶. College of F:ngineering, Hebei Univel!lity of Engineering, Handan Hebei 056038) Key Words: deformation of arch dam; cause-咱ffect mode~ cau自作-effect importance; cau仲吧ffect reasonin院 safety monitoring Abstract: ßased on the principle of cause咱也ct model. the factor 6et and rωult， set of the deformation of arch dam have been constructed. 咄咄 the caus俨effect mechanism betw时n the deformation and deformation cause of arch dam had been studied in-d叩th according to the relevant physical and mechanical principle. on the basis of these , causal analysis map. level analysis method and fuzzy math have been integrated 10 calculate cause-effect importance degree and to draw the corresponding map. Mter the application of wavelet analysis in extracting the trend component of the deformation , the cause吨ffect rea筒。ning based on cases has b时n taken combining with tradi