2016年蔬菜市场形势分析及2017年展望.pdfVIP

产 品 预 测 2016年蔬菜市场形势分析及2017年展望 王盛威 熊 露 吴建寨 (中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室 北京 100081) 摘 要: 2016年以来, 蔬菜生产整体保持稳定发展态势, 总体供应仍然充足, 但由于先后遭受倒春寒、 南方强降 雨、 雾霾和强寒流天气影响, 蔬菜市场供应出现阶段性、 区域性偏紧状况。 蔬菜价格总体符合常年波动规律, 但在历 史高点与历史低位间大幅震荡, 呈大涨大跌态势： 春季蔬菜受倒春寒影响价格明显高于近年同期水平, 总体高位运行； 进入夏季, 由于北方产区夏季蔬菜的种植面积较大, 价格又跌破近年同期水平； 秋季菜价由于夏秋季、 秋冬季蔬菜供 应断茬再次冲破历史高位。 预计2017年蔬菜种植面积仍将较为稳定, 蔬菜供应较为充足, 如果天气正常且蔬菜生长状 况良好, 2017年蔬菜价格或将保持稳中略降态势。 关键词: 蔬菜； 生产； 市场价格；展望 Vegetable Market Situationin2016 andItsProspect for 2017 Wang Shengwei, Xiong Lu, Wu Jianzhai (Agricultural Information Institute, CAAS;KeyLaboratory ofAgri-information Service Technology, Ministry ofAgriculture, Beijing 100081) Vegetable production maintained stable development in 2016, and the overall supply remained sufficient. However, due to the late spring cold spells, the heavy rainfall in the southern China, smog and strong cold weather, vegetable supply witnessed some localized tight situation. Vegetable prices in general moved along with perennial fluctuation, but volatilized pronouncedly between the record highs and lows. Vegetable prices in spring were significantly higher than the same period in recent years due to the unprecedented cold weather; while the summer prices plummeted close to historic lows owing to the substantial area expansion; and autumn vegetable prices registered the record highs as a result of seasonal supply gaps between summer/autumn and autumn/winter. It was expected that vegetable area would remain relatively stable in 2017 and the supply would be adequate. Barring extreme weather conditions on a large scale, vegetable prices were projected to hold steady with slightly downward trend in 2017. vegetable; production; market price; o