基于实测离散数据的含风电场电力系统概率潮流计算.pdf

Sustainable Energy 可持续能源, 2017, 7(1), 1-9 Published Online February 2017 in Hans. /journal/se /10.12677/SE.2017.71001 A Probabilistic Power Flow of Wind Integrated Power System Calculation Based on Measured Discrete Data 1 1 2 3 3 Xiaofeng Han , Peihong Yang , Lan Kang , Wenying Liu , Yalong Li 1 School of Information Engineering, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou Inner Mongolia 2 School of Mining Coal Engineering, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou Inner Mongolia 3 State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University), Beijing th th th Received: Jan. 27 , 2017; accepted: Feb. 14 , 2017; published: Feb. 17 , 2017 Abstract With the increasing penetration of wind sources, using common probability density function to fit the probability distribution to compute the probabilistic load flow (PLF) will lead to considerable error. We propose PLF calculation method considering discrete distribution of input variables to calculate more realistic results. This method only needs wind power discrete sampling data com- bined with point estimate method of discrete variable function statistical moments and Gram- Charlier expand series, to estimate the statistical characteristics of the output of the random vari- able, such as the information of expectation, variance, cumulative distribution and so on. The ef- fectiveness and practicality of the proposed method is verified using IEEE 39-bus system, and the results show that: the calculation method is not only faste