中介效应 讲解.pdf

86 MEDIATION AND MODERATION ANALYSIS 4.2 Estimation of the Direct, Indirect, and Total Effects of X When empirically testing a causal process that involves a mediation component, of primary interest is the estimation and interpretation of the direct and indirect effects along with inferential tests thereof. To derive these effects, one must also estimate the constituent components of the indirect effect, meaning the effect of X on M as well as the effect of M on Y, although the constituent components of the indirect effect are not of primary interest in modern mediation analysis. Many analysts will often estimate the total effect of X on Y as well, although doing so is not required for the purpose of interpretation. The total effect will be defined later. The simple mediation model represented in the form of a statistical diagram can be found in Figure 4.2. Notice comparing Figures 4.1 and 4.2 that there is little difference between the conceptual and statistical diagrams representing a simple mediation model. As there are two consequent variables in this diagram, two linear models are required, one for each consequent. This statistical diagram represents two equations: M = i1 + aX + eM (4.1) ′ Y = i2 + c X + bM + eY (4.2) where i1 and i2 are regression intercepts or constants, eM and eY are errors in the estimation of M and Y, respectively, and a, b, and c′ are the regression coefficients given to the antecedent variables in the model in the estimation of the consequents.1 The coefficients of the model are treated as estimates of the putative causal influences of each variable in the syste