MARKETRESEARCH：Nosurewaytopickawinner翻译.doc

SPECIAL REPORT - MARKET RESEARCH: No sure way to pick a winner 市场调研：没有确切的办法能让你胜券在握 Marketing Week.?London: May 19, 2005.?pg.?45 Full Text?(1595 ? words) (Copyright (c)版权（c） 2005. Centaur Communications Limited. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner.在版权所有者的同意下可以复制 Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission. 更进一步的转载或发布在未经许可的情况下是禁止的。 Companies invest heavily in product research, seeking out trend- setters and running simulations. They might just as well ask randomly chosen consumers to bet on likely success, says Alicia Clegg Being big can be an asset amid the rough and tumble of business. But there is one area where small companies can, and often do, trump their larger rivals - innovation. A single big idea can help an unknown business make a name for itself - think Innocent Drinks or Body Shop. But to stay ahead, in the long run, brands need to break new ground, year after year. It is to solve this problem that many turn to research agencies for some mental stimulation. 许多企业斥巨资在产品开发上，以寻求创新风格以及进行模拟。Alicia Clegg说，他们偶尔也会随机抽选顾客，让顾客预测有成功潜力的产品。在生意困难和暴跌之中，企业规模之大能够成为一项资本。但是，小企业们在一个领域上能够，而且是常常，胜于那些具有更大规模的对手——创新。一个好的点子就能帮助一个不知名的企业成名，例如Innocent Drinks（英国一家开发健康饮品的企业）和Body Shop（致力于美容和护理）。但为了保持在上游，从长远的角度看，品牌需要年复一年地开辟新天地。就是为了解决这一问题，才有许多公司向调研机构求助，以寻求一些心灵上的启发。 There are two ways to think about the future of a brand. One is to study the here and now, in order to spot gaps in the market. Peoples fundamental needs dont change, says Synovate research manager Alex Maule. The challenge is to uncover them. An alternative is to hunt for people whose lifestyles and opinions offer clues to the future. 我们可以从两个方面来思考一个品牌的未来。一个是审视当前的情况，以定位市场缝隙。Synovate的研究主管Alex Maule说：“人们的基本需求是不变的，我们的挑战就在于去发掘这些需求。”另一个办法是寻找一些其生活方式和想法能对未来趋势提供线索的人群。 Trend-spotting is becoming an industry in its own right. Advertising agencies and brand owners have their radars pointed towards cities such as New York, Sydney, Tokyo and London, where new patterns of behaviour are thought to tak