基于UPFNN油田机采工艺动态演化建模.docVIP

基于UPFNN油田机采工艺动态演化建模 　　摘 要： 采用建模发现油田机采系统的潜在规律，再利用该规律优化获取机采系统的最佳决策参数，对解决机采系统效率低、能耗大等问题具有重要意义。然而，机采系统受机械、地层、人为等不确定因素的影响，难以掌握其生产参数、环境变量与系统性能之间的变化关系。为此，提出无迹粒子滤波神经网络，并用其建立机采系统的动态演化模型。该方法将无迹卡尔曼滤波作为重要性采样密度，直接通过无迹卡尔曼滤波估算状态向量（粒子）的概率密度函数，从而有效提高滤波精度以及建模精度。通过对某油田机采系统的数据样本实验，表明该方法提高了机采模型的精度，并能对动态系统突变实时跟踪，可有效指导机采系统获取最佳决策参数 关键词： 油田机采； 无迹粒子滤波； 神经网络； 建模精度； 动态演化建模 中图分类号： TN081?34； TP183 文献标识码： A 文章编号： 1004?373X（2017）05?0109?06 Abstract： The modeling is used to discover the potential rules existing in the oil field mechanical plucking system， and the rules optimization is used to acquire the optimum decision parameter， which have the important significance to solve the problems of low efficiency and high energy consumption of the oil field mechanical plucking system. The mechanical plucking system is influenced by the uncertain factors such as the machinery， geological environment and artificial intervention， so it is difficult to master the change relationship among the operation parameter， environment variable and system performance. Therefore， a dynamic evolution model for the mechanical plucking system based on unscented particle filter neural network （UPFNN） is proposed， which takes the unscented Kalman filtering as the important sampling density. The probability density function of the state vector （particle） is estimated with the unscented Kalman filtering to improve the filtering accuracy and modeling accuracy effectively. The data samples experiment of a certain oil field mechanical plucking system was conducted. The results show that the method has improved the accuracy of the mechanical plucking model， can track the dynamic system mutation in real time， and guide the mechanical plucking system for acquiring the optimum decision parameter. Keywords： oil field mechanical plucking； unscented particle filtering； neural network； modeling accuracy； dynamic evolution modeling 0 引 言 油田?C采设备中抽油机以其结构简单、制造成本低、耐久性好、维修方便等优点，成为我国油田机械采油的最主要方式，但其效率低下，存在巨大的能源浪费问题[1?2]。优化生产、节