heizer10e_ch04 运营管理 PPT (10th Edition) by Jay Heizer and Barry Render.ppt

4 PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer and Render Operations Management, 10e Principles of Operations Management, 8e PowerPoint slides by Jeff Heyl Outline Global Company Profile: Disney World What Is Forecasting? Forecasting Time Horizons The Influence of Product Life Cycle Types Of Forecasts Outline – Continued The Strategic Importance of Forecasting Human Resources Capacity Supply Chain Management Seven Steps in the Forecasting System Outline – Continued Forecasting Approaches Overview of Qualitative Methods Overview of Quantitative Methods Time-Series Forecasting Decomposition of a Time Series Naive Approach Outline – Continued Time-Series Forecasting (cont.) Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Trend Projections Seasonal Variations in Data Cyclical Variations in Data Outline – Continued Associative Forecasting Methods: Regression and Correlation Analysis Using Regression Analysis for Forecasting Standard Error of the Estimate Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines Multiple-Regression Analysis Outline – Continued Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts Adaptive Smoothing Focus Forecasting Forecasting in the Service Sector Learning Objectives Learning Objectives Forecasting at Disney World Global portfolio includes parks in Hong Kong, Paris, Tokyo, Orlando, and Anaheim Revenues are derived from people – how many visitors and how they spend their money Daily management report contains only the forecast and actual attendance at each park Forecasting at Disney World Disney generates daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecasts Forecast used by labor management, maintenance, operations, finance, and park scheduling Forecast used to adjust opening times, rides, shows, staffing levels, and guests admitted Forecasting at Disney World 20% of customers come from outside the USA Economic model includes gross domestic product, cross-exchange rates, arrivals into the USA A staff of 35 analysts and 70 field