行程时间波动性对路径选择影响的离散选择分析.pdfVIP

10 1 Vol110 No11 2010 2 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology February 2010 : 100 -6744 (2010) 01-0140-05 * 1 2 干宏程 , 叶 昕 ( 1. , 2000 3; 2. , , ) : 探索了行程时间波动性对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响. 研究采用意向调查获 驾驶员从两条行程时间和行程时间波动性不同的路径中选择路径的行为数据, 采用 离散选择建模方法建立估计路径选择概率的二元Probit 模型, 揭示驾驶员对行程时间 和行程时间波动性进行权衡的行为机理. 行程时间和行程时间波动性分别用期望行程 时间行程时间标准偏差来度量. 研究发现: ( 1) 路径的行程时间和行程时间波动性都 会对路径选择产生负面影响. ( 2) 中等年龄段驾驶员, 较之比他们年轻的和年长的, 对 行程时间波动性越看重, 对行程时间波动更敏感, 选择行程时间不确定的路径的概率更 小. ( 3) 出租车驾驶员对行程时间更敏感, 选择行程时间更短的路径的倾向性更大. (4) 驾驶经验丰富的驾驶员选择行程时间不确定的路径的可能性更小. : 城市交通; 行程时间波动性; 路径选择; 离散选择分析; 意向调查; 二元Probit 模型 : U4 1 : A Investigating the Effect of Travel Time Variability on Drivers. Route Choice Decision via Discrete Choice Analysis 1 2 GAN Hong-cheng , YE Xin ( 1.Management College, University of Shanghai for Science andTechnology, Shanghai, 2000 3, China; 2.The National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA) Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of travel time variability on drivers. route choice behavior. A stated preference survey is conducted to collect drivers. hypothetical choice data between two alternative routeswith des- ignated unequal travel time and travel time variability. A binary choice model is developed to quantify trade-offs between travel time and travel time variability across various types