第12章 就业12.doc

CHAPTER 12 THE STATE OF LONG-TERM EXPECTATION 第十二章：长期预期状态 I WE have seen in the previous chapter that the scale of investment depends on the relation between the rate of interest and the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital corresponding to different scales of current investment, whilst the marginal efficiency of capital depends on the relation between the supply price of a capital-asset and its prospective yield. In this chapter we shall consider in more detail some of the factors which determine the prospective yield of an asset. 我们在上一章已经看到，投资规模取决于利息率和资本边际效率之间的关系，即对于不同规模的当期投资，就有与之相应的资本边际效率取值。而资本边际效率的取值又取决于资本资产的供给价格和它的未来收益之间的关系。本章我们将详尽地考察决定一项资产的未来收益的某些因素。 The considerations upon which expectations of prospective yields are based are partly existing facts which we can assume to be known more or less for certain, and partly future events which can only be forecasted with more or less confidence. Amongst the first may be mentioned the existing stock of various types of capital-assets and of capital-assets in general and the strength of the existing consumers demand for goods which require for their efficient production a relatively larger assistance from capital. Amongst the latter are future changes in the type and quantity of the stock of capital-assets and in the tastes of the consumer, the strength of effective demand from time to time during the life of the investment under consideration, and the changes in the wage-unit in terms of money which may occur during its life. We may sum up the state of psychological expectation which covers the latter as being the state of long-term expectation; --as distinguished from the short-term expectation upon the basis of which a producer estimates what he will get for a product when it is finished if he decides to begin producing it to-day with the existing plant, which we examined in Chapter 5. 对未来收益的预期部分地取决于现存的事实，它们多少可以被认为是确定的；部分地取决于将来的事实，这只能以或多或少的信心对之进行预测。在前者的既成事实中，可以指出的如：现有各种类型的资本资产的存量、现有资本资产的总量、消费者当期对