中国石油消费与经济发展之间经济计量分析——基于产业层面的研究.pdfVIP

2007年 12月 河北科技大学学报(社会科学版) Dee．2007 第7卷第4期 Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences) V01．7 NO．4 不 和 行 中 文章编号：1671—1653【2007)04—0013—08 中国石油消费与经济发展之间经济计量分析 基于产业层面的研究 刘 宏杰 (中国社会科学院，北京 100836) 摘 要：本文分析了中国经济发展过程中石油消费总量的变化趋势，并对1985～2006年 同产业的石油消费和产业增加值等基本状况进行了深入研究。在此基础上，运用协整理论 Granger因果关系检验理论，按照不同的产业对中国石油消费和产业增加值之间的关系进 了实证分析。结果表明，中国第一、三产业石油消费量与产业增加值之间不存在相关关系， 国第二产业的石油消费量与产业增加值之间存在正相关关系，但无因果关系。 关键词：石油消费；增加值；协整回归分析；因果关系检验 中图分类号：F407．22 文献标识码：A Empirical Analysis of the Relation between Oil Consumption and Economic Development in China A Study Based on Different Industries LIU Hong—jie (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences，Beijing 100836，China) Abstract：This thesis analyzes the change trend of the total oil consumption of oil resources con— sumption with the development of Chinas economy，and deals with the oil consumption and value add— ed of the three industries detailedly during 1 985~2006．On the basis of the study of the oil consump— tion and the value added of different industries，the theorem of Cointegration and Granger causality are introduced in order to testify the relation between oil consumption and value added of the three in— dustries in our country．The article suggests that the correlativity does not exist between oil consump— tion and value added of the primary and tertiary industry through the empirical study．The positive correlativity associates the oil resources and the development of the secondary industry tightly though causality does not exist between oil consumption and value added of the industry in China． Key