哈耶克货币非国家化理论的自然实验以民国时期上海竞争性货币体系为.pdfVIP

哈耶克货币非国家化理论的自然实验：以民国时期上海竞争性货币体系为例 A Natural Experiment on Hayek’s Theory of Denationalization of Money: A Case Study on the Competitive Monetary System of Shanghai in Republican China 刘愿 华南师范大学经济与管理学院 摘要： 哈耶克于 1976 年提出货币非国家化理论，但货币竞争往往被认为不切实际而未受到足 够重视。本文从政府垄断货币发行的历史、货币竞争的交易成本、私人企业逐利性是否导致 货币超发、竞争导致寡头垄断及竞争性货币体系潜在的不稳定性五个方面讨论了货币竞争的 可行性，并以民国时期上海的货币体系为例检验货币竞争的可行性及合意性。研究发现，以 中国银行上海分行为核心的竞争性货币体系在货币发行、信贷政策等方面既保持了相当的谨 慎又不失弹性，即使在大萧条银价涨跌的外生冲击下仍竭力维持货币体系尤其是币值的稳 定，但 1935 年的法币改革成就了法币的垄断发行，破坏了市场竞争的约束作用，为国民政 府后期的严重通胀埋下了制度性根源。 关键词：货币竞争 哈耶克 大萧条 法币改革 Abstract: The theory of denationalization of money, put forward by Hayek in 1976, is always regarded as being impractical and is undervalued in Economics. We first discuss the practicality of currencies competition from the following five aspects: the history of government’s monopoly on money issuance, the transaction cost of multiple money, the probability of over-issuance by profit-oriented private enterprise, the oligopoly originated from competition and the potential instability of competitive monetary system. Then we make a case study on Shanghai’s monetary system in Republic China to test the feasibility and desirability of competitive monetary system, and find that the competitive monetary system centering on Shanghai’s branch of Bank of China kept both very prudent and adequately flexible in money issuance and credit. It still tried its best to keep the monetary system, particularly the value of currencies stable even during the Great Depression with exogenous impact by the sharp fluctuation of silver’s price. The legal tender reform in 1935, however, established the govern