The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation：（代际转移的角色在总资本积累）.pdfVIP

The Role of IntergenerationalTransfers in Aggregate CapitalAccumulation LaurenceJ. Kotlikoff Yale University Lawrence H. Summers MassachusettsInstitute of Technology This paper uses historical U.S. data to directly estimate the contri- bution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumula- tion. The evidence presented indicates that intergenerational trans- fers account for the vast majority of aggregate U.S. capital forma- tion; only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life-cycle or hump savings. A major difference between this study and previous investigations of this issue is the use of more accurate longitudinal age-earnings and age-consumption profiles. These profiles are simply too flat to generate substantial life-cycle savings. This paper suggests the importance of and need for sub- stantially greater research and data collection on intergenerational transfers. Life-cycle models of savings that emphasize savings for retirement as the dominant form of capital accumulation should give way to models that illuminate the determinants of intergenera- tional transfers. During the past quarter century, the life-cycle hypothesis (Modig- liani and Brumberg 1954; Ando and Modigliani 1963) has emerged We are indebted to R. Barro, M. Boskin, G. Chamberlain, R. Clower, M. Darby, S. Engerman, M. Feldstein, V. Fuchs, R. Gordon, E. Leader, P. Menchik, J. Skinner, and F. Welch for enlightening discussions. We thank the Foundation for Research in Economic Education; the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare; and the National Bureau of