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The great unknown 不确定性之重Can policymakers fill the gaps in their knowledge about the financial system? 政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗？Economics focus 经济聚焦Jan 13th 2011 | from PRINT EDITION ?? ?? ???Tweet ?? ?? ???IN THE depths of the Great Depression, Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt had to set economic policy on the basis of information that decision-makers today would consider pathetic. Along with manufacturing output, factory employment and department-store sales, they counted the number of freight wagons transported by rail. As a result America subsequently developed national accounts, which try to measure the economy better, using concepts such as gross domestic product.在大萧条最为严重的时候，胡佛总统和罗斯福总统不得不靠着仅有的，当今政策制定者都觉得可怜的一点点信息来制定经济政策。除了计算工业产出，工厂就业率和百货商场销售额外，他们还计算铁路运输的货车数量。结果，美国后来开发出一系列的国民经济核算指标，用国内生产总值等概念来更准确地衡量经济状况。The world has since invented a vast array of financial and economic statistics and the processing power to crunch them. Yet policymakers are today in a similar position with regard to the financial system. New “macroprudential” bodies have been tasked with maintaining financial stability, such as the European Systemic Risk Board (which has its inaugural meeting next week) and America’s Financial Stability Oversight Council. But the crisis exposed vast gaps in knowledge. From conduits and subprime-related securities to the regulatory-capital-enhancement swaps written by AIG, there was a bewildering list of financial exotica that played a significant role in the meltdown. 自那以后世界各地出现了一系列繁繁总总的金融和经济统计指标，和研究这些指标的处理能力。然尔就金融系统而言，政策制定者今天的处境和过去差不多。新型的“宏观审慎”机构，像欧洲系统风险委员会（下周正式成立）和美国金融稳定监管委员会，正为维持金融系统的稳定而努力。然而金融危机显示出对市场的认知还存在很大的缺陷。从管道投资和次级债相关证券到AIG承销的为改善法定准备金的掉期合约，各种新奇的，令人眼花缭乱的的金融产品无疑和这场大灾难息息相关。The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB), a global club of regulators, have picked some priorities. Three things are at the top of the wish-list. First, system-wide measures of borrowing and “maturity mismatch”, where banks use short-term fun