宏观经济学8.政策.pptVIP

8 policy 第八章 政策 Chapter highlights A large country does not have the option of not having a macroeconomic policy. Uncertainty about the economic policy Our imperfect knowledge of the economy Temptation toward the inflationary bias 一个大国必须有宏观经济政策 宏观政策的不确定性 不完全信息的影响 不完全知识的影响 政策形成的体制与通货膨胀的政策倾向 8-1 policy: working backward 政策：？ Start with an observed shock or proposed policy changes Policy formulation Policymaking process 始于一个观察到的冲击或提出的政策变化 政策形成 政策形成过程  8-2 lags in the effects of policy 政策效应的时滞 Distinguish whether the disturbance is permanent or transitory. If a disturbance is temporary and has no long-lived effects and policy operates with a lag, the best policy is to do nothing. 判断“扰动”是长期的,还是“瞬时的” 如果扰动是暂时\没有长期影响\而政策运作有一定的时滞,则最好的政策是“无为”。 Fig8-1Lags and Destabilizing Policy Divided into two stages时滞的两个阶段 Inside lag The recognition lag The decision lag The action lag Outside lag 内部时滞: 认知时滞 决策时滞 行动时滞 外部时滞 The recognition lag 认知时滞 The period that elapses between the time a disturbance occurs and the time the policymakers recognize that action is required. The recognition lag is positive 扰动发生-----决策者认识到需要采取行动 认知时滞是正的 (索罗的研究:5 个月) 扩张性政策:时滞较短 收缩性政策:时滞较长 the decision and action lags决策时滞和行动时滞 the decision lag : delay between the recognition of the need for action and policy decision, differs between monetary and fiscal policy. the decision lag for monetary policy is short. 决策时滞 认识到需要采取行动------政策决定 货币政策的决策时滞较短 action lag ----the lag between the policy decision and its implementation---for monetary policy is also short. In USA, under the existing of the Federal Reserve System, the decision is short and the action lag practically zero. 行动时滞 政策决定-----政策实施 货币政策的行动时滞----为零 财政政策的行动时滞较长(必须履行法定程序) automatic stabilizers 自动稳定器 automatic stabilizer is any mechanism in the economy that automatically----that is, without case-by-case government intervention---reduces the amount by which output changes in response to a change in autonomou