优化粒子群算法在组合供热负荷预测中的应用.pdfVIP

第 9 卷 第 5 期 信 息 与 电 子 工 程 Vo1．9，No．5 2011 年 10 月 INFORMATION AND ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING Oct．，2011 文章编号： 1672-2892(2011)05-0655-05 优化粒子群算法在组合供热负荷预测中的应用 高丙坤，李 阳，许明子 (东北石油大学 电气信息工程学院，黑龙江 大庆 163318) 摘 要 ：分析了粒子群算法和组合预测的特点。将组合预测和粒子群算法结合，建立了一种 组合形式的供热负荷预测模型。同时针对粒子群算法易于陷入局部最优解、进化后期收敛慢等缺 点对粒子群算法进行改进，解决了组合预测中权重难以确定的问题。改善了预测模型的拟合能力， 提高了预测精确度。最后选取大庆油田某一天供热数据作为测试数据，结果表明组合预测误差较 小，精确度高于其他单项预测方法 40% 以上。 关键词 ：供热负荷预测；组合预测；粒子群算法；权重；预测精确度 中图分类号 ：TN911.7； TU832.02 文献识别码 ：A Application of particle swarm optimization algorithm in the heating load combination forecasting GAO Bing-kun，LI Yang，XU Ming-zi (School of Electrical and Information Engineering，Northeast Petroleum University，Daqing Heilongjiang 163318，China) Abstract: This study analyzed the characteristics of the particle swarm algorithm and the combination forecast. By combining the combination forecasting with the improved particle swarm optimization，a combination of heating load forecasting model was established. For the particle swarm algorithm is liable to fall into local optimal solution, and due to its slow convergence in the later stage of evolution and other shortcomings, the standard particle swarm optimization was improved, which solved the difficulties in determining the weight coefficients. And the fitting ability of forecasting model was effectively improved as well as the accuracy of prediction. Adopting the data from daily run of a thermal substation in Daqing oilfie