基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估-电网技术.pdf

第 39 卷 第 3 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 39 No. 3 2015 年 3 月 Power System Technology Mar. 2015 文章编号：1000-3673 （2015 ）03-0744-07 中图分类号：TM 71 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4051 基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估 1 1 2 1 1 侯雨伸 ，王秀丽 ，刘杰 ，郭静丽 ，唐伦 （1．西安交通大学 电气工程学院，陕西省 西安市 710049 ； 2．国网智能电网研究院，北京市 昌平区 102200 ） A Quasi-Monte Carlo Method Based Power System Reliability Evaluation 1 1 2 1 1 HOU Yushen , WANG Xiuli , LIU Jie , GUO Jingli , TANG Lun (1. School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, Shaanxi Province, China; 2. Smart Grid Research Institute of State Grid, Changping District, Beijing 102200, China) ABSTRACT ： In allusion to slow error convergence of Monte 进行可靠性计算，EDNS 和 LOLP 指标具有更快的误差收敛 Carlo method used in power system reliability evaluation, the 速度。该方法可作为电力系统可靠性计算的一种新思路。 quasi-Monte Carlo method sampled by low discrepancy 关键词：可靠性评估；蒙特卡罗；拟蒙特卡罗；低偏差点列 sequence is applied in reliability evaluation. The principle of DOI ：10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.03.024 quasi-Monte Carlo method is presented and compared with Monte Carlo method in error analysis. Further, the construction 0 引言 of Sobol low discrepancy sequence is described. A quasi-Monte 现代电力系统结构复杂、规模庞大，快速准确 Carlo reliability calculation model, in which the Sobol 地评估电力系统可靠性水平对系统规划和安全运 sequence are taken as the sampling points, is established and