决策理论7_多目标决策的基本概念.pptVIP

7 多目标决策的基本概念 7.1 多目标决策及其特点 7.2 多目标决策与多目标评价 7.3 多目标决策问题的要素 7.4 多目标决策问题的符号表示 7.5 非劣解与最佳调和解 7.1 多目标决策及其特点 例子: 买车 多目标决策问题的特点 多目标决策问题的特点 买车问题的决策目标和属性 术语1： Objectives （目标）: An objective has been defined by Keeney and Raiffa as an indication of the preferred direction of movement. Thus, when stating objectives, we use terms like ‘minimize’ or ‘maximize’. Typical objectives might be to minimize costs or maximize market share. 术语2： Attributes（属性） An attribute is used to measure performance in relation to an objective. For example, if we have the objective ‘maximize the exposure of a television advertisement’ we may use the attribute ‘number of people surveyed who recall seeing the advertisement’ in order to measure the degree to which the objective was achieved. Sometimes we may have to use an attribute which is not directly related to the objective. Such an attribute is referred to as a proxy attribute. For example, a company may use the proxy attribute ‘staff turnover’ to measure how well they are achieving their objective of maximizing job satisfaction for their staff. 多目标决策的目标树 First level objective The highest level of this structure generally represents the broad overall objectives that are instrumental in initiating the multiple objective decision problem in the first place. These objectives are, however, often vaguely stated and, hence, unoperational. Second level objectives As we go down the hierarchical level, objectives at the lower level are more specific and more operational than those in the higher level. They are perceived as means to achieving higher ends represented by objectives in the higher level. Thus objectives at the lowest level of the hierarchy are “most specific” and “most operational”. Attributes for objectives An objective is operational is there is a practical way to assess the level of achieving such an objective. To facilitate this practical method, a set of attributes is assigned to each objective in the lowest level. An attribute is