北京低碳发展战略研究.pdf

北京低碳发展战略研究 Low Carbon Development Strategy Study for Beijing 姜克隽, 庄幸 Jiang Kejun, Zhuang Xing 国家发改委能源研究所 Energy Research Institute 研究目标Research Objectives 研究目标：研究分析北京2030年实现低碳、安全能源体系的 途径、政策，在战略层次提出发展框架，支持北京世界城市 和长期社会经济发展目标的实现 Analyze low carbon development pathways, target by considering energy security in Beijing, to support Beijing’s development goal, as a World City 研究方法Research Methodology  回顾分析北京到目前的能源环境发展进程，分析确认北京能源需求增长的 因素，及其带来的环境后果  Review energy development and CO2 mitigation in Beijing, identify key factors and environment consequence  国际大城市能源环境发展的经验，以为北京能源发展提供可借鉴的发展途 径  Review experience from other targeted cities in the world, to provide good practices for Beijing  利用模型定量分析北京未来能源和环境发展，得到未来能源和排放情景， 提出北京能源环境发展的途径，特别注重实现绿色低碳安全能源系统的情 景  By using IPAC model, to analyze emission scenarios for Beijing, to see what’s the possible pathway for energy development and CO2 emission  结合上面定性定量分析，提出北京能源绿色低碳安全发展的政策建议  Based on the previous analysis, present policy options for Beijing Share of days in one year with air quality above WHO standard II 如果采用PM2.5最为大气标准，北京的空气质量 合格率会下降到30-50% But if use PM2.5, air quality is much lower, with 30-50% to reach WHO standard II Population in Beijing 2500 2000 1500 0 0 0 0 1 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Primary Energy Demand in Beijing 8000 7000 6000 e 5000 c t 0 0 4000 0 0 1 3000 2000 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Energy Use by Sectors 北京市