Hindsight≠foresight the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty英文资料.pdf

Downloaded from on October 17, 2012 - Published by 304 CLASSIC PAPER Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty* B Fischhoff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Qual Saf Health Care 2003;12:304–312 One major difference between historical and historian Georges Florovsky1 notes: “The ten- nonhistorical judgment is that the historical judge dency toward determinism is somehow implied typically knows how things turned out. In Experiment 1, in the method of retrospection itself. In retro- spect, we seem to perceive the logic of the events receipt of such outcome knowledge was found to which unfold themselves in a regular or linear increase the postdicted likelihood of reported events fashion according to a recognizable pattern with and change the perceived relevance of event descriptive an alleged inner necessity. So that we get the impression that it really could not have happened data, regardless of the likelihood of the outcome and otherwise” (page 369). the truth of the report. Judges were, however, largely An apt name for this hypothesized tendency to unaware of the