麦肯锡-中国移动通信市场分析.pptVIP

China’s Mobile Telecom ServicesIndustry Overview GCO Practice Development ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND REFERENCES KEY MESSAGES KEY MESSAGES 1997-2001 MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH OF 30% CAGR HAS OUTPACED OTHER TELECOM SERVICE SECTORS AND IS PROJECTED AT 16% THROUGH 2005 EXTRAORDINARY SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF REVENUE EVOLUTION, MORE THAN MAKING UP FOR LARGE DECLINES IN ARPU DUE TO STIFF COMPETITION CHINA IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF SUBSCRIBERS, HAVING OVERTAKEN THE US IN 2001 CHINA’S MOBILE SUBSCRIBER BASE IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR MARKET, COMPRISING 15% OF WORLD TOTAL IN 2001 CHINA’S MOBILE MARKET IS PROJECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY CHINA’S SUBSCRIBER BASE OF 218 MILLION IMPLIES A 47% PENETRATION OF AN ADDRESSABLE MARKET OF 460 MILLION BY 2005 MOBILE SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION OF LESS THAN 7% IN 2000, LEAVES SIGNIFICANT ROOM FOR GROWTH CHINA’S RICHER PROVINCES GENERALLY HAVE MORE SUSCRIBERS AND ARE GREATER PENETRATED… …WHILE THE POOR WESTERN AND INTERIOR PROVINCES HAVE LESS SUBSCRIBERS AND ARE LESS PENETRATED KEY MESSAGES CHINA’S MOBILE OPERATOR LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED SIGNIFICANTLY, CULMINATING IN SECOND BREAKUP OF CHINA TELECOM MOST RECENT BREAK-UP OF CHINA TELECOM TO LEAD TO A LANDSCAPE OF 5 OPERATORS COMPETING ACROSS BOTH MOBILE AND FIXED PROFILES OF CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE PLAYERS OTHER PLAYERS UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN MOBILE LICENSES EXISTING AND POTENTIAL MOBILE OPERATORS HOLD BROAD BUT DIFFERENT COMPETITIVE POSITIONINGS AND SERVICE OFFERINGS EACH EXISTING/POTENTIAL MOBILE OPERATOR HAS STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES MOST OPERATORS HAVE EXISTING PARTNERSHIPS WITH FOREIGN PLAYERS IN MOBILE TELECOM SERVICE MARKET, CHINA MOBILE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE DOMINANT OPERATOR IN BOTH REVENUE… …AND SUBSCRIBER* SHARE PROPORTION OF EACH OPERATORS’ SUBSCRIBERS* INCLUDED IN LISTED ENTITY CHURN IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT WITH BOTH OPERATORS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DRIVEN BY INCREASING COMPETITION WITH IMPACT GREATEST ON CHINA MOBILE CHINA MOBILE