1736_2000年度黄河中下游地区降水变化的周期分析_英文_.pdf

J. Geogr. Sci. (2008) 18: 17-25 DOI: 10.1007/s11442-008-0017-5 © 2008 Science in China Press Springer-Verlag Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (1736−2000) HAO Zhixin, ZHENG Jingyun, *GE Quansheng Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China Abstract: Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736−2000 recon- structed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipita- tion changes, are explored. The results show that: the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2−4a, quasi-22a and 70−80a. The 2−4a cycle is linked with El Niño events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Niño year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70−80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation − (PDO) coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70 80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong (weak) solar activity is generally correlated to the dry (wet) periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80−100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is be- coming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70−80a time scale. Keyw