如果忽略一些随机因素的影响，大气系统可以被认为是一个-气象学报.DOC

天气可预报性的时空分布* 丁瑞强 李建平 DING Ruiqiang and LI Jianping 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室，北京，100029 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China DING Ruiqiang and LI Jianping. 2008. The temporal-spatial distributions of weather predictability of different variables, Acta Meteorlogica Sinaca, Abstract Based on the nonlinear error growth dynamics introduced by the authors recently, the temporal-spatial distributions of weather predictability of different variables including geopotential height, temperature, zonal and meridional velocity, are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, respectively. The results are summarized as follows: (i) At 500 hPa level, the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of predictability limit are also different for different variables. Overally, the predictability limit of geopotential height is largest in the most regions, that of temperature and zonal velocity second, and that of meridional velocity is smallest. (ii) The predictability limit of geopotential height and temperature appears a zonal distribution with the relatively high value over the Antarctic, the tropics and the Arctic, and the relatively low value in the middle-high latitudes of northern and southern hemispheres. The predictability limit of zonal velocity is highest over the tropics, while that over the Antarctic, the Arctic and middle-high latitudes is lowest. The predictability limit of meridional velocity is highest over the Antarctic and Arctic, while that over the tropics and middle-high latitudes is lowest. (iii) The predictability limits of geopotential height, temperature, zonal velocity are all found to increase with height. The predictability limit is below two weeks in the low troposphere, while the predictability limit is about one month in the low stratosphere. (iv) For different variables, the predictability limit is all found to vary with the seasons. For the most regions of the northern and