中国碳排放交易权机制的政策效果分析.pdf

中国环境科学 2017,37(6) ：2383~2392 China Environmental Science 中国碳排放交易权机制的政策效果分析 ——基于双重差分模型的估计 范 丹 1,2*,王维国 1,2,梁佩凤 1 (1.东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁 大连 116025 ；2.东北财经大学经济计量分析与 预测研究中心,辽宁 大连 116025) 摘要：在控制地区环境规制等重要解释变量下,检验碳排污交易权试点机制在中国是否能促进我国的低碳经济转型.研究结果显示:在全局 DEA 框架下,考察期内,碳排放交易权试点省份与非试点省份的工业全要素生产率提升乏力.从潜在双重红利来看,相对于试点省份,非试点 省份的减排手段缺乏灵活性,其经济红利和环境红利仍有较大的释放空间.基于核匹配双重差分模型的政策效应分析可知,碳排污权交易机 制在一定程度上降低现阶段碳排放总量,但对经济产出的影响微弱;碳排放交易权试点政策并没有提高试点省份的工业全要素生产率,而 对技术进步率有显著的提升作用.因此,碳排放交易权机制在一定程度上支持了技术创新的弱波特假说,而对全要素生产率的强波特假 说并未显现,碳排放交易权机制应该是我国实现低碳经济转型的必要措施. 关键词：碳排放交易权；双重差分模型；全局 DEA ；波特效应 中图分类号：X196 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2017)06-2383-10 Analysis of the performance of carbon emissions trading right in China--The evaluation based on the 1,2* 1,2 1 difference-in-difference model. FAN Dan , WANG Wei-guo , LIANG Pei-feng (1.Department of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China ；2.Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting, Dongbei University of Finance Economics, Dalian 116025, China). China Environmental Science, 2017,37(6)：2383~2392 Abstract ：The paper examined whether the mechanism of pilot project for carbon emissions trading right could promote the low-carbon economy transformation in China after controlling some important explanatory variables such as the environmental regulation. The results showed that in the global DEA framework, the industrial total factor productivity lacked of ability to enhance both in the provinces which launched the pilot project for carbon emissions trading right and in those which didn’t during the inspection period. From the point of potential double dividend, the measures to reduce emissions were not so flexible in the non-pilot provinces as those in the pilot provinces, so that there was still a large release space for the econom