2016 Multifamily Outlook - Freddie Mac（2016多户家庭的前景u2014u2014房地美(Freddie Mac)）.pdfVIP

Multifamily Outlook 2016 Executive Summary Demand for multifamily rental housing was higher than expected in 2015, absorbing much of the newly completed supply. Therefore, vacancy rates remained low and rents continued to rise in most markets. As more supply enters the market in 2016, multifamily fundamentals will moderate, more so in some geographic markets than others. Sustainable Market Growth Steady economic growth and key drivers will keep the multifamily market moving forward in 2016. • Multifamily rental demand kept pace with the large wave of new supply in 2015 and will remain strong into the foreseeable future. o Favorable demographic trends, strength in the job market and reduced affordability of owning a home will continue to fuel strong demand for multifamily rental units. o As more supply enters the markets, the national vacancy rate will increase slightly, but it will remain less than the historical average through 2016. As a result, rent growth will remain strong until new supply can catch up with demand. • In 2015, 306,000 multifamily units were completed and entered the market – the most in a single year since 1989. The level of new multifamily supply is expected to remain elevated over the next few years, given that the number of new construction permits rose again in 2015. • The labor market added 2.7 million jobs and is near full employment as the unemployment rate finished 2015 at 5 percent. The strengthening labor market will put upward pressure on wage growth in 2016. • Despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates in December 2015, multifamily property price growth will remain strong and capitalization rates will not be significantly affected in the short-term