基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计（Estimation of Chinas trade elasticity based on Panel Data）.docVIP

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基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计（Estimation of Chinas trade elasticity based on Panel Data）.doc

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基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计（Estimation of Chinas trade elasticity based on Panel Data）

基于面板数据的中国贸易弹性估计（Estimation of Chinas trade elasticity based on Panel Data） Abstract: the use of Chinese and its 20 major trading countries and regions of the panel data of 19 90-2005 years, not completely replace the empirical model based on the theory, price and income elasticity using panel data unit root and cointegration technique to estimate the China foreign trade. The results show that the import and export trade on the price is inelastic, from the income elasticity of import demand, the income elasticity is less than 2, the income elasticity of exports is close to 5, exports relative to imports has a larger income elasticity, which is the main cause in the context of the global financial crisis China trade situation reversed. Keywords: foreign trade; income elasticity; price elasticity CLC number: F752, document identification code: A, article number: 1003-3890 (2010) 09-0005-04 I. research background and literature review Since Chinas accession to the WTO at the end of 2001, Chinas foreign trade volume has increased by more than 20% over the past few years. At the same time, the trade surplus has maintained a faster growth rate. Chinas trade surplus was $177 billion 500 million in 2006, reaching $262 billion 200 million in 2007, an increase of nearly 50%. With the rapid growth of export trade, Chinas foreign exchange earnings continued to increase, while other countries had to bear the huge trade deficit created by china. In order to ease and reverse the worsening trade environment, Chinas trading partners, in addition to the anti-dumping measures against Chinese enterprises, will focus more on the appreciation of the renminbi. During the period, the RMB exchange rate has also reached a record high, breaking through the 1 to 7 mark. However, contrary to what Chinas trading partners expected, Chinas imports and exports were not affected much during this period, and export trade continued to grow at a rate of 20%. Entered in 2008, began in the global financia