Types of Risk风险类型.docVIP

Types of Risk风险类型 Business商业风险 Normal risks that offer gain and loss正常的风险可能会带来盈利或损失 Pure / Insurable纯风险/可保险 Only loss: property damage, indirect consequential loss, legal liability, personnel. For risk we can outsource, we have contract. For pure risks, we obtain insurance.只带来损失：财产损害、间接损失、法律责任、人员损失。可通过购买保险、签订合同等手段将风险转移出去。 Risk Factors风险因素 来源，事件，征兆 Risk event风险事件 Risk probability风险概率 Amount at Stake得失量 Statistical Independence统计独立 Data Precision Ranking数据精确度等级 Secondary Risk二次风险 Occurrence of one event is not related to occurrence of the other 一件事情的发生与其他事情的发生无关（期望值分析和决策数分析的必要条件） Purpose is to test the value of data (input to Qualitative Analysis)数值测量（质量分析的输入） (part of Risk Response Planning)（风险应对计划的一部分） Path Convergence路径汇聚 Tendency of parallel paths of equal duration to delay the completion of the milestone where they meet所有在此处的延迟会导致汇合于此处的任何路径的延迟 Contingency Plan应急计划 Uncertainty不确定性 Planned action steps to be taken if an identified risk occurs. (e.g. developing alternative activity sequences)如果风险发生，应该采取计划措施的步骤（如：制定备选方案） An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the absence of any information related to a desired outcome.一个偶然事件，对未来事件缺乏认知 Workaround权变措施 Unplanned response to negative risk events (requires to be impacted by the risk first)对不利的风险事件的未经计划的应对措施（首先要压缩风险） Expected Monetary Value期望值 = Probability * Monetary Impact (used in Decision Tree Analysis)概率*得失量（用于决策树分析） Risk Event风险事件 A discrete occurrence that may affect the project for better or worse. After a risk event, the project manager’s role is to reassess the risk ranking. The risk owner is responsible to take action when an identified risk occurs.可能导致项目变好或者变坏的不连续事件。风险事件过后，项目管理者的任务是重新评估风险等级。当风险发生时，风险所有者有责任采取行动 Risk Trigger风险触发器 A symptom of risk; indirect manifestation of actual risk event; output of risk identification; example is poor morale一种风险征兆；间接的表现出风险事件；风险鉴别的输出； Risk Portfolio Risk data assembled for the management of the project项目管理中的风险数据组合 Utility Theory效用理论 Techn