考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害风险评价-中国电机工程学报.PDF

第32 卷 第28 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.32 No.28 Oct.5, 2012 44 2012 年10 月5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2012 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 文章编号：0258-8013 (2012) 28-0044-11 中图分类号：TM 71 文献标志码：A 学科分类号：470·40 考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害风险评估 贺海磊，郭剑波 ( 中国电力科学研究院，北京市 海淀区 100192) Seismic Disaster Risk Evaluation for Power Systems Considering Common Cause Failure HE Hailei, GUO Jianbo (China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China) ABSTRACT: Network’s risk-assessment model and method 表现形式[1-2] 。通常可靠性评估将电力系统的失效过 are crucial for improving power system’s safety under seismic 程当作独立过程来处理，而忽视其中的共因失效问 disaster. The research in this field in China is still not perfect. 题。这种处理方法使得对大型网络的可靠性评估成 Characteristics of seismic disaster were analyzed, and analysis 为可能，在一定程度上反映了系统的日常运行可靠 method and theoretical framework of seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause 性水平，但对于某些特殊情况，如强烈地震灾害， failure were proposed. Element damage probability model was 是不适用的。 established based on ground shaking prediction method. 地震灾害虽然是小概率事件，但对电力系统的 Considering the influence of network structure and operation 危害却极大。日本、美国、中国台湾及大陆学者等 conditions, seismic disaster risk-evaluation algorithm and risk 对电力系统的抗震性能进行了很多研究。总体来 indices for power systems were proposed. Entropy weight was applied to evaluate the effects of indices on nodes’ anti-disaster 说，国外及中国台湾在电力系统抗震研究方面主要 ability and nodes’ comprehensive disaster-risk indices were 可分为电气设备级、变电站级和电力网络级3 个层 calculated.