0387775e-02 Text book - UNIDO（0387775 e-02课本联合国工业发展组织）.pdf

Delphi method Abstract The Delphi method was originally developed in the 50s by the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, California. This approach consists of a survey conducted in two or more rounds and provides the participants in the second round with the results of the first so that they can alter the original assessments if they want to - or stick to their previous opinion. Nobody ‘looses face’ because the survey is done anonymously using a questionnaire (the first Delphis were panels). It is commonly assumed that the method makes better use of group interaction (Rowe et al. 1991, Häder/Häder 1995) whereby the questionnaire is the medium of interaction (Martino 1983). The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (20-30 years), as expert opinions are the only source of information available. Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and therefore the value of the process as such is also acknowledged. During the last ten years, the Delphi method was used more often especially for national science and technology foresight. Some modifications and methodological improvements have been made, meanwhile. Nevertheless, one has to be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the method so that it cannot be applied in every case. It is useful for an assessment of new things to come and in cases, which can be explained very shortly. This means for co